1. Sources
An input is marked sourced only when it appears in a document the project's owners, lenders or regulators published. Press coverage can flag a number, but the number stays out of the model until a primary document confirms it.
Each sourced input stores the document link and the date it was checked. If the document changes, the input, the date and the change log are updated together.
Documents used
- NRC dockets, permits, licenses and environmental reviews
- DOE Loan Programs Office and Federal Financing Bank terms
- State utility commission filings and orders
- SEC filings and company releases
- EIA operating data
2. Input tiers
Examples from the Palisades model
| Tier | Rule | Example | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sourced | Stated in a primary document | DOE loan rate, FFB Treasuries + 0.375% | 4.55% |
| Sourced | Published operating data | U.S. fleet capacity factor, EIA | 91% |
| SEQH estimate | Not disclosed; set by a stated method with a range | PPA price | $65 ($56–76) |
| Secondary, held | Reported in the press only; kept out of the model | None in Palisades today | — |
3. Ranges
Every estimate carries a P10, P50 and P90. Costs and prices use a log-normal: they can't go below zero, and overruns run larger than underruns.
P10, P90 = median × e^(±1.2816σ)
Capacity factor uses a beta distribution, bounded between 0 and 100% and skewed toward the high end, as a well-run fleet is.
4. Undisclosed contract prices
Most nuclear offtake deals don't publish a price. The Engine estimates one with a bargaining model. The seller's floor is what the power earns without the contract. The buyer's ceiling is its next-best source of firm, clean power. The price lands between them according to leverage, β.
price = floor + β × (ceiling − floor)
5. Cost of capital
Cash flows are discounted at a weighted average cost of capital from the project's own financing. Where a federal loan sets the cost of debt, the loan's stated rate is used. Base case 7%, tested from 6% to 9%.
WACC = E/V × Re + D/V × Rd × (1 − t)
6. Limits
The Engine does not issue ratings, buy or sell calls, or price targets, and it does not fill gaps with invented data. Anything not disclosed is labeled as an estimate, with its method and range shown.